Really quick entry here, as the numbers are shifting a lot and there’s a very large amount of uncertainty regarding Monday and what the end result will be. Ipsos came out with a poll today, which, when I ran it through my Projection Machine, yeilded the following: Party Projected Assured Probable Possible Long Shot…
Read moreCould Harper be Poised to Pull it off?
For the last few weeks, things have looked pretty grim for the Conservative Party; of course, that’s assuming you believe what the mainstream media tells you. The CBC, CTV, the National Post, and of course Pravda The Toronto Star all seem to be actively campaigning for the NDP/Liberal coalition. However, Ekos released a poll yesterday (well, it’s…
Read moreLatest Seat Projection
Steven Britton Deep Stuff, Election Predictions, Interest, My Portfolio, My Stuff, Opinion, Web Development Stuff, Work Stuff
Update: Forgot to mention the source of this data: Abacus. Poll date: August 31, 2015. Map colours also updated to make things easier to understand, and added an additional map. (September 5, 2015) Note to mobile users: This program isn’t perfect for you, yet; but I will be adding that functionality in due time. I…
Read moreComprehensive seat prediction, ridings to watch, #wrp majority #abvote
At long last, I am now ready to present a comprehensive prediction based on the last two polls released by Forum Research. I decided to aggregate these two polls because they happened one day apart (Last Saturday and Last Sunday), and both were released by the same company, using the same methodology. At the right of…
Read moreAnother Seat Prediction: Abacus Data – #wrp 71, #PC 12, #ABNDP and #ABLIB 2 #abvote
A couple of things here. First, I’m dealing with a bout of laryngitis, otherwise I’d be doing this as a video blog. I switched formats for that purpose, and it’s quite frustrating to be relegated back to text on account of The Common Cold deciding to attack my voice box. Oh well. The show, as…
Read moreQuick seat prediction – Today’s Forum Poll #wrp 62, #PCAA 22, #ABNDP 3 #abvote
I have just visually superimposed an riding map of the new riding distribution over the riding distribution for the 2008 election, and calculated seat results. Then, based on the geography of the new ridings, I’ve tried to adjust the seat counts based on the new number of seats in the Alberta Legislature (87). It really…
Read moreLatest Prediction: Leger Marketing, Forum, Campaign Research #wrp #abvote #pcaa
Another set of polls were released recently… [youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IYw8VHPy6eU?rel=0] To summarize, here are my predictions ordered by the dates that the polls were taken: Poll Date(s) Polling Firm Seats: Result March 22-25 Ipsos-Reid 46 33 2 2 Wildrose Majority March 22-25 ThinkHQ 34 40 5 4 PC Minority March 22-25 Leger Marketing 36 43 3…
Read moreNew Day, New Poll, New Prediction (and a correction) #ableg #pcaa #wrp
As I tweeted yesterday, I caught an error in my previous prediction, which I have to correct. I’ve also churned through some numbers provided by a new polling firm and come up with a new prediction… [youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5rHsNdb6y5Y?rel=0]
Read moreGazing into the Crystal Ball. 2012 Alberta Election Prediction #ableg #wrp #pcaa #abvote
Plugging the latest Ipsos Reid numbers into an election prediction algorithm is fun, can be extremely tricky, probably wildly inaccurate, and yields some very interesting results: [youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xg8of_1j3mY?rel=0]
Read moreProjection Interpretation and Analysis: Pretty Good!
As I posted in my previous entry, I think I made a fairly good prediction of the result of the election, based on the information I had available to me. For my final result model, I used a public opinion poll released on Sunday, May 1, 2011, as it sampled a very large number of people…
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