Really quick entry here, as the numbers are shifting a lot and there’s a very large amount of uncertainty regarding Monday and what the end result will be.
Ipsos came out with a poll today, which, when I ran it through my Projection Machine, yeilded the following:
| Party | Projected | Assured | Probable | Possible | Long Shot | Maximum |
| Conservative | 138 | 91 | 47 | 47 | 11 | 196 |
| Liberal | 109 | 58 | 51 | 65 | 31 | 205 |
| New Democrat | 75 | 28 | 47 | 29 | 18 | 122 |
| Green | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Bloc Quebecois | 13 | 1 | 12 | 18 | 8 | 39 |
Below is the map. In this map, the lighter the shade of colour for the projected winner, the less confident we can be in the result. So that means white ridings, while they have a projected winner, are really too close to call.
[scb_map pollster=”Ipsos-Reid” polldate=”20151014″ datafile=”IpsosResults.csv” basemap=”Canada” htmlpath=”Canada.Fed.Constituencies.English.Only” mainmap=”projected winners” underlyingmap=”incumbents” underlyingfolder=”Incumbents” altmap=”popular support” altfolder=”Popular.Support”]