Really quick entry here, as the numbers are shifting a lot and there’s a very large amount of uncertainty regarding Monday and what the end result will be.

Ipsos came out with a poll today, which, when I ran it through my Projection Machine, yeilded the following:


Party Projected Assured Probable Possible Long Shot Maximum
Conservative 138 91 47 47 11 196
Liberal 109 58 51 65 31 205
New Democrat 75 28 47 29 18 122
Green 1 1 0 0 0 1
Bloc Quebecois 13 1 12 18 8 39

Below is the map.  In this map, the lighter the shade of colour for the projected winner, the less confident we can be in the result.  So that means white ridings, while they have a projected winner, are really too close to call.

[scb_map pollster=”Ipsos-Reid” polldate=”20151014″ datafile=”IpsosResults.csv”  basemap=”Canada” htmlpath=”Canada.Fed.Constituencies.English.Only” mainmap=”projected winners” underlyingmap=”incumbents” underlyingfolder=”Incumbents” altmap=”popular support” altfolder=”Popular.Support”]

Steven Britton Deep Stuff, Election Predictions, My Stuff, Political

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *