Now, this is all supposition and speculation, but remember a while back about illegal contributions to the Conservatives from municipalities, which is illegal in Alberta? I wonder if St. Albert is on that list. A quick google search does seem to indicate a large number of Alberta Conservative members heavily involved in St. Albert’s municipal government.
It is very unbecoming of a civic mayor to criticize Alberta’s Leader of the Official Opposition for merely doing her job.
Sadly, this is what Albertans deserve – they, after all, voted for these clowns.
Tonight, Albertans squandered a wonderful opportunity. Imagine a land of hope. Of dreams. Of freedom.
Now take that image and set it on fire – because that’s what Albertans did tonight. By re-electing a Progressive Conservative government, Albertans set this province back 20 years. Albertan voters elected a party that has been bullying and intimidating doctors, nurses and school boards. A party that struck a committee that didn’t meet for more than three years, and then set up the compensation structure to include “bonus” pay for sitting on the committee. A party that gave their cabinet ministers a 30% raise on a whim.
Well, Albertans have spoken. I disagree – entirely – with their choice; but this is a democracy. So, Albertans will have to be punished for their stupid decision.
Oh no, not by me. I won’t be lifting a finger (except for exploring real estate in Saskatoon) to do anything to Albertans for their decision. I will leave Alberta to suffer the consequences of their actions.
At long last, I am now ready to present a comprehensive prediction based on the last two polls released by Forum Research. I decided to aggregate these two polls because they happened one day apart (Last Saturday and Last Sunday), and both were released by the same company, using the same methodology. At the right of the screen is a map. The lightest colours on the map show the ridings with the closest margins of victory. If you want a closer look, click on the picture.
The Wildrose Party is poised to win about 55 seats (though, as I’ll show later, that is based solely on my numbers. The eventual result will be based on who shows up to vote and how they cast their ballots. I’m predicting many close races, so I could be totally out to lunch.)
The PCs should take about 23 seats, and the NDP will bring up the rear with 3, all of which are likely to be in extremely close races.
The Liberals will be wiped out.
Now, as I mentioned, my numbers are very close in many ridings, so here’s a list of “ridings to watch” and my predicted Margin of Victory:
Less than 10 Percent:
Riding – Projected Winner
====================
Barrhead-Morinville-Westlock – PC
Cypress-Medicine Hat – Wildrose
Calgary-Acadia – Wildrose
Calgary-Buffalo – Wildrose
Calgary-Cross – Wildrose
Calgary-Currie – Wildrose
Calgary-Foothills – Wildrose
Calgary-Fort – Wildrose
Calgary-McCall – Wildrose
Calgary-North West – Wildrose
Calgary-South East – Wildrose
Edmonton-Castle Downs – PC
Edmonton-Glenora – PC
Edmonton-Mill Woods – Wildrose
Edmonton-South West – PC (Hunsperger)
Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville – PC
Lacombe-Ponoka – Wildrose
Lethbridge-East – Wildrose
Peace River -0 Wildrose
Rimbey-Rocky Mountain House-Sundre – Wildrose
St. Albert – PC
Less than 5 Percent: Riding – Projected Winner
====================
Calgary-East – PC
Calgary-Fish Creek – Wildrose
Calgary-Glenmore – Wildrose
Calgary-Greenway – Wildrose (Leech)
Calgary-Hays – Wildrose
Edmonton-Calder – PC
Edmonton-Ellerslie – Wildrose
Edmonton-Manning – NDP
Edmonton-McClung – PC
Edmonton-Meadowlark – PC
Edmonton-Rutherford – NDP
Fort McMurray-Conklin – PC
Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo – PC
Grande Prairie-Wapiti – PC
Lesser Slave Lake – PC
Sony Plain – Wildrose
Strathmore-Brooks – PC
Vermillion-Lloydminster – PC
Less than 1 Percent: Riding – Projected Winner
====================
Calgary Shaw – PC
Personally, over and above the ridings listed, I will be really watching the following ridings:
All three of which are ridings I am predicting will be lost by the incumbent. My gut feeling, though, is Brian Mason, after his performance in the debate, may retain his seat.
Calgary-Greenway (My riding)
Edmonton-South West (Allan Hunsperger)
10. Conscience Rights. Yep. That’s on the list. Why? Because, for a society to be truly free, people must be able to act in accordance with their conscience! Freedom of conscience is already protected under the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms, and merely means that someone will continue to be free to refer a potential client to another service provider if what the client wants done goes against the conscience of the provider. Without this provision, people will be forced to act against their deeply held religious morals and beliefs. People will be compelled to provide service when they otherwise would not. People would not be free. A state that forces people to do something against their wishes and better judgement is not a state within which I wish to live. The idea of having Official State Morality forced upon me is far more terrifying than the idea of being free to act (or freely choose not to act) in accordance with my conscience.
9. Fiscal responsibility. The Wildrose government will balance the budget within this fiscal year – a feat the PC’s haven’t managed since 2008 when Ed Stelmach took the reins of power. In a resource-rich province like Alberta, there is no reason at all that we should have problems with deficits. Even when the oil price tanks (which, given the price of gasoline, it clearly hasn’t)
8. Respect for our service providers. Schools, school boards, doctors, nurses, and all the other public service providers will be treated with respect. They will know the position of the government in terms of contract negotiations for union employees, and they will not be threatened, intimidated, or bullied into silence.
7. Respect for the rule of law. The PC party has – last I saw – 73 counts of accepting illegal campaign contributions. The Wildrose Party, being “fresh”, won’t have the deep “old boy’s club” connections that exist within the PC Party. Also, the Wildrose Party, in government, will be accountable to the public through recall, so if anything untoward starts to surface, the constituents can get rid of the MLA in question. (See #6)
6. Recall and referendum legislation. Imagine being able to pull a corrupt MLA out of the legislature. Imagine holding them to account between elections. You voted for the guy, he’s messing up, or he’s got his hands in the cookie jar. Now you can get him the hell out of there – and he knows it! Imagine forcing the government to slow down on a contentious bill. Imagine forcing the legislature to take a bill to the public rather than ramming it through with little or no consultation with the public. Imagine if that had been possible with the GST back in 1991… Were would the GST be now? It worked for BC, and it can work for here too. And no, a bunch of men won’t be able to force a referendum on invoking the Notwithstanding Clause to delist abortion.
5. Legislated free votes. This is how the legislature is SUPPOSED to work in the first place. Parties have a platform and a shared set of ideals, but inside the confines of the Legislature, each MLA is an independent. They may agree to sit together in caucuses, and agree to support the government as appointed by the Monarch (represented by the Lieutenant Governor) but beyond that, each proposed piece of legislation should pass or fail on its own merits.
4. Standing up for our oil sands. On this front, Danielle Smith is right on, and Alison Redford is, well, bananas.
3. A sense of humour. The campaign bus. ’Nuff said.
2. Respect for free speech. By refusing to punish a candidate for expressing his deeply held religious views, Danielle Smith showed that she respects a variety of diverse opinion. That is refreshing. Alison Redford wanted the guy fired. Why? For telling people what his Christian beliefs are about homosexuality? As Danielle Smith said – Hate Speech is a criminal code offence. If someone thinks a candidate has committed a crime, then call the police. But expressing an opinion about what happens to a person after they die based upon their behaviour during their life? That’s not hate speech. And, quite frankly, by demanding that Danielle Smith punish a person for expressing their opinion, Alison Redford has outed herself as a bigot.
And the number 1 reason I am voting Wildrose:
1. It will piss the bigots, haters, mudslingers, and all the others who are engaging in a campaign of outright terrorism (manipulation through fear) off.
A couple of things here. First, I’m dealing with a bout of laryngitis, otherwise I’d be doing this as a video blog. I switched formats for that purpose, and it’s quite frustrating to be relegated back to text on account of The Common Cold deciding to attack my voice box.
Oh well. The show, as they say, must go on. I’ll just type this out rather than do it as a video. Hopefully, over the next few days, my voice will return to normal and I can get back to ranting and raving in front of my trusty Sony HD Camcorder… and $14 teleprompter.
Yes. I made a teleprompter.
For $14.00.
Maybe I’ll show you how I did it one day.
In any event, I’m writing this because Abacus (and later on, Campaign Research) released a couple of polls detailing more support numbers for the various parties throughout Alberta.
Now, let me be clear, I am dubious about what I’m about to share. This close to election day, I am really hoping for some better regional breakdowns. Abacus Data offers three regions: Edmonton, Calgary, and The Rest of Alberta.
Forum Research, on the other hand, breaks the numbers down a lot better: Northern, Central, Southern, Alberta, Edmonton, and Calgary. Much more detail to work with. Northern Alberta seems to have more PC support, while Southern Alberta is entrenched with Wildrose. Edmonton is strong for the PCs, though the tight 4-way fight means all kinds of things could happen.
Calgary is solidly Wildrose.
So, I’m going to share these numbers with you, but I want you to take them as somewhat out of whack:
Wildrose: 71 PC: 12 Liberal, NDP: 2 Each
To get these numbers, I ran a prediction against the 2008 riding configuration, then visually overlaid the 2012 ridings, and made a “best guess” as to which way the new ridings would go. Calgary and rural alberta were easy – clean Wildrose sweep with this poll, but Edmonton was more tricky.
So, I’m going to adjust my Wildrose numbers down a bit and the PC numbers up:
Wildrose: 66 PC: 17 NDP/Liberal: 2 each
Either way, Wildrose landslide, and Alison Redford (after saying she was proud of the video, “I Never Thought I’d Vote PC”, deservedly so) will likely go down in history as the Worst. Premier. Ever.
The election campaign has really heated up in the last few days, and things are getting nasty – from accusations of homophobia to racism, both aimed at candidates and at members of the public participating in discussions on Twitter.
Politics is a blood sport at the best of times, and I’ve seen some rough campaigns since I started paying attention to politics; but this campaign is, by far, the nastiest one I have ever seen.
This ad is, well, terrible. Not only is it completely inaccurate and loaded with lies, but it also is extremely insulting to Albertans. It is also insulting to Albertans’ intelligence. The individual or individuals who made this video clearly have absolutely no idea what Albertans are all about, nor do they have any idea how Albertans really think. This ad, which contains Warren Kinsella’s signature line, “Danielle Smith thinks The Flintstones is historically accurate” actually, at least I think, actually is driving more votes to the Wildrose Party than away from it, because most of us remember the horrible days of the Chretien government between 1993 and 2003, and, most specifically, the nasty 2000 election campaign with all the accusations and terrorism tactics of the “hidden agenda” (which, I also think, is another Warren Kinsellaism – as Mr. Kinsella was involved heavily with the Chretien campaigns.)
In any case, this next video is far, far worse. I haven’t watched the whole thing, and I doubt you will either, because it is just, plain awful.
The person who created this second video compares Tom Flanagan to Adolph Hitler? Well, not only is it a case of Godwin’s Law going badly wrong for the person, (the moment someone makes a Nazi comparison, they automatically lose the argument) it again is incredibly insulting. If “Vicky Fredericks” really thinks “she” will influence votes away from the Wildrose Party with this particular pile of trash, she is sadly mistaken.
Now, moving on to better information. Leger Marketing released a poll earlier today showing the race has been heating up. Naturally, I grabbed my trusty prediction software and ran the numbers through the computer. Yes, the race has tightened a bit, and there are still a few days left in the campaign, though I think it really is, for Alison Redford, the Worst Premier Ever, too little, too late. Especially with the awful videos I just showed you.
Here’s my calculated numbers based on the Leger Marketing Poll:
Again, Raj Sherman ends up with nothing – and deservedly so – because he is, by far, one of the worst provincial opposition party leaders I have ever seen in action.
To make things a little more interesting, I also generated a map of how things may look if this Leger poll translated into reality. Remember though, these predictions are usually completely and totally wild at the riding level, because you are applying regional breakdowns (with larger margins of error) against election results from last time, and things move around a bit over 4 years.
But here it is, for interest’s sake, anyway.
I think it’s fair to say that in terms of nastiness and horrendous campaign tactics, “we ain’t seen nothin’ yet.”
[UPDATE]
It turns out the creator of the “I never thought I’d vote PC” video was not affiliated with the PC Party, but was a 27-year-old named Aviva Zimmerman. Other details include it cost $3000 to make, which exceeds the $1000 limit for unregistered third-party advertising, and, well, Aviva didn’t register as a third party, and the penalty for that offence is $10,000 fine. Oops!
I have just visually superimposed an riding map of the new riding distribution over the riding distribution for the 2008 election, and calculated seat results. Then, based on the geography of the new ridings, I’ve tried to adjust the seat counts based on the new number of seats in the Alberta Legislature (87).
It really doesn’t make much of a difference either way, because my result is consistent with virtually every poll that has been released so far dating back to the last prediction I made which has the Wildrose Party taking a decisive landslide victory with the range of about 60 seats. The PCs are well back at approximately 20, with the NDP at 3.
Note that there are no Liberals showing.
Adjusting for the new configuration, Each of the Wildrose and PCs gain two seats, so the result is pretty much a wash.
Here’s my prediction based on the Forum Poll, conducted on April 16, 2012:
