Ipsos Reid does not break down their results into urban areas, so this seat prediction is less reliable than the others I’ve published.
Okay, let’s be honest. No seat prediction is reliable. I say that simply because to predict the outcome of the next election, one takes the previous election, drops independent MPs from consideration, and then maps the changes found in regions to individual ridings within the region. This process has so many uncontrollable variables that the prediction cannot really be considered to be any more than an educated guess.
There. I’ve said it.
Seat predictions are a guide; not a guarantee, which is why I also publish a range within which I can expect the outcome to occur:
Conservatives: 152-202
New Democrats: 33-124
Liberal 25-42
Bloc Quebecois: 7-31
As you can see, the range of variance in seat counts is huge. This is due to the inherent volatility in the vote concentrations of various regions, especially in Quebec. The poll’s margin of error means a very large number of seats are currently in play, which means that Monday’s result is virtually unpredictable, except to say the following:
The Conservatives will win the largest block of seats. It is probable that the Conservatives will win more than 155 seats, and thus a majority. It is also likely that Monday will be a disaster for two party leaders – Michael Ignatieff and Gilles Duceppe.
It all comes down to the individual ridings and the choices people make.
I would peg the NDP rise on one thing, The success of Harper and the CPC ad campaign against Ignatieff, i.e. “He didn’t come back for you” It was a brilliant campaign. That coupled with Duceppe and the disastrous PQ conference allowed Layton to become a viable option and once that happened left wing were able to go with a guy they actually liked in Layton. Here is were it gets interesting, I do not believe that Harper will get the his majority outright, I would peg them at 148 right now with the NDP at 95, Libs at 48, and the BQ at 17. In that case there will be a drive by the left wing of the Liberal Party and the NDP to form a anti-Harper coalition government which in my opinion will tear apart the Liberal Party with the conservative wing of the party bolting and joining Harper giving him a razor-thin majority. One thing for sure, Monday and the days that follow will be interesting.