In the same vein as my last prediction, put out this morning from the data supplied by Nanos Research, here is one based on the data supplied by the most recent Ekos poll, also released today:
Conservative: 144
NDP: 108
Liberal: 53
Bloc Quebecois: 3
Ekos is an interesting firm. Their results are always very low for the Conservatives and high for other parties. They had similar issues during the 2008 campaign. Their methodology uses a recorded message over the phone (both to landlines and cell phones) where the participant is not required to talk to a person. Given the results are very far off from the other polling firms, and given they off by 3% in 2008, whereas Ipsos Reid and Angus Reid, both with much smaller sample sizes were far closer, this leads me to believe that Ekos’ methodology has a flaw in it somewhere.