Prediction Accuracy Report (Complete) – Can I call it, or can I call it?

On Sunday, I predicted the following result based on my prediction program and intuition:

Conservative: 156 (155-160)   NDP: 76 (80-80)   Liberal: 46 (40-50)   Bloc: 30 (25-35)

My program initially spit out the following based on Ekos’ data:

Conservative: 150   NDP: 116   Liberal: 37   Bloc: 5

Once I had adjusted for Ekos’ traditional polling 3% low for the Conservatives, an adjusted prediction came out as:

Conservative: 159   NDP: 114   Liberal: 29   Bloc: 6

It looks like a number of things: First, I was right in calling a Conservative Majority.

All right, that’s not too impressive.

It also looks like I should have relied more upon my program and less on my intuition this time around.  I’ll discuss that more later in a follow-up.  For now, I want to just get the data out.

Comparing the riding-by-riding results to what my prediction program produced (without my intuition, but adjusting the CPC up 3% and the others down 1% each) here’s what I get:

Newfoundland and Labrador:    6/7 – 86%
Prince Edward Island:   3/4 – 75%
Nova Scotia:   8/11 – 73 %
New Brunswick:   9/10 – 90%
Quebec:   59/75 – 79%
Ontario:   83/106 – 78%
Manitoba:   11/14 – 79%
Saskatchewan:   13/14 – 93%
Alberta:   28/28 – 100% <– Alberta is not a difficult place to predict
British Columbia:   29/36 – 81%
Territories:   1/3 – 33%

Nationally: 250/308 – 81%

All in all, I think that’s pretty good!